A new study sheds light on how transit-oriented development (TOD) can help reduce urban carbon emissions in China. The article was authored by Pengxiang Ding, a former guest PhD student at UQ supported by a CSC scholarship, together with his PhD advisor in China Suwei Feng, and his UQ|UP mentor Dorina Pojani. The study examines the effects of China’s Transit Metropolis Pilot (TMP) program on carbon emissions across 273 cities between 2006 and 2019. Using econometric analysis, the authors provide robust evidence on the environmental benefits of the program. Their findings are positive: The TMP program has been effective in directly reducing carbon emissions. Compared to non-pilot cities, pilot cities achieved a 13.4% reduction in carbon emission intensity and an 8.3% decrease in total carbon emissions. The program’s impact is stronger in larger cities and in western China, where urban growth pressures and transport needs are especially high. The TMP’s effects are long-lasting, persisting for one to five years after pilot implementation. The program reduces emissions both directly and indirectly through “Avoid–Shift–Improve” mechanisms—including car purchase and use restrictions, public transport upgrades, technological innovation, and the adoption of new energy vehicles. Bottom line: when it comes to emissions, public transport is better than cars.

To cite:

Pengxiang Ding, Suwei Feng, Dorina Pojani. 2026. The impact of China’s Transit Metropolis Pilot program on carbon emissions. Research in Transportation Business & Management, Volume 64, 101544, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2025.101544.