For years, we’ve known that housing costs shape migration patterns. When prices soar, fewer people move in, and more people move out. But with today’s extreme housing affordability crisis, are we seeing even stronger effects?
The latest research by a UQ|UP team dives deep into this question, looking at how housing prices, supply, and even housing types influence migration patterns across Australia. Using data from 2012 to 2023, we track movement between capital cities and regional areas, uncovering some key trends:
- High housing prices push people out. When prices rise by 10% in a city, outbound migration jumps by over 8%. In other words, people are being priced out of their homes and seeking affordability elsewhere.
- Expensive destinations deter movers. A 10% increase in housing prices at a destination city reduces in-migration by nearly 4%. People are not just leaving high-cost areas; they’re avoiding expensive places altogether.
- Housing supply matters—but not as much as prices. Adding more homes helps retain residents, but the effect is smaller than the impact of rising prices.
- COVID-19 changed the game. Before the pandemic, people were more influenced by prices in their current location. Post-pandemic, they are paying more attention to prices at their potential destination—especially for standalone houses.
The big takeaway? Housing market conditions are playing an ever-growing role in shaping where people move. With affordability at crisis levels, migration is becoming a key indicator of where housing markets are failing to meet demand. If we want to manage urban and regional growth effectively, we need better housing policies—fast.
To cite:
Charles Siriban, Aude Bernard, Dorina Pojani, Tom Wilson, 2025. Internal migration responses to housing dynamics before and after COVID-19 in Australia, Applied Geography, Volume 178, 103548, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103548.